Happy Good Friday! I was gonna sit here and type a bunch of stuff but, I'm lazy. I'm just watching the employment stuff, reading my Wall Street Journal, drinking my coffee and looking at a lot of good comments, especially Werner. Werner brings up some good points.
I love that they're going to call it Bidenomix, or whatever it's going to be. I want to unpack some things. I had dinner last night with a buddy of mine who owns a roofing company here in South Florida.
I mean, I'm not going to say he roots for hurricanes, but hurricanes are a very big business down here in South Florida. He's like "Dude, my CFO already told me... Here's how many people we're going to clip if, or when, our corporate taxes go up."
So you know, Werner. I appreciate the red team with how you think the economy is going to do great. I'm doing it also on my next list. The thing to do is take a look at my financials folks, taxes are going up for a company, aren't they?
It hits their bottom line, right? Did you see Jen Pasaki the other day? You know somebody's like, hey man, raising taxes on businesses as they're coming out of the pandemic. Doesn't that not make sense, and she's like, well.
They kind of got a good deal under Trump here, so they can... They can bear the burden. She used those words, really. So, what if the businesses can't remember this? So, for the folks who think that all this money going into, quote, infrastructure - which only a small percentage of it is. I didn't know that elder and child care were part of building bridges and roads, but you know, call me crazy.
Remember that stuff. Even Barack Hussein Obama eventually admitted this. What did he say? Quote. I'm paraphrasing, but he said: shovel-ready jobs do not exist, so the effects, the impact of all this like building a bridge or whatever is going to be years into the future which might help the economy and stuff like that.
What is immediate. What is immediate is the impact of higher taxes, so when they start clipping businesses and get more money from them, that's immediate. We won't see the impact of building a bridge or high-speed internet for old people in the middle of Montana for years, right? It's a lie!
Folks, we still don't know if we're not raising taxes on anybody who makes under 400 grand. Is that a couple, or is that a household? I mean, when you start doing math when you look at a family... Peggy Noonan has a good article. Her opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal today talks about a family of three in the middle of New Jersey.
Upper middle class or middle class in that area makes 400 to 500 grand a year and is going to get shellacked! Let me just throw this out here right now. I told you I was going to take a day or a couple of days to kind of figure out what I'm doing here.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Period! So you know, is this a hold your nose rally? Should you continue to trade the market? You may not have not the market you want. Not that I want a down market or for companies to lay off people. I want people to be pissed off that this is personal.
It's such a lie, guys. You know it. Well, I don't make 400 grand a year so my taxes, aren't going to go up. Yeah. They are, man. My buddy told me last night that he is already mapping out who's going to get laid off. He says, I'm, not a charity. If Joe Biden increases my corporate taxes, I'm clipping people, right, and he said I'm also going to raise the prices of my stuff!
Did you just hear what I said? He is going to "raise the prices of my stuff and my services." We are going to see inflation and prices of stuff going up. So, guys? This is a cauldron of potential bad. There is no good in this Biden tax grab.
The market only cares when it cares, okay? But I am telling you folks and we'll see if it happens this time. I don't think it will. This is too soon for this earnings period, but you need to be ready for this in the future. With the next earnings calls what can CFOs or CEOs start doing? Well...
The impact of the coming tax thing is going to impact our earnings. We might start hearing this on conference calls. If I were a young, enterprising financial reporter on an earnings call with Amazon I would be asking how are Bidenomics going to affect Amazon. Or, I could be completely wrong.
Everybody is ignoring the tax increases. If I were the CEO of a company, even though I am virtue-signaling like the coward CEO of Delta Airlines, I would see that it's going to impact the bottom line. We covered this a week or two ago.
The Goldman Sachs note that says the average hit to EPS for S&P 500 companies will be nine percent. Let that sink in. If you told me as a CEO, like dude, no matter what happens next year, we're, getting kicked in the gut for nine percent.
That sucks. So, I'm, probably I'm gonna keep my XLY and my Amazon in case i'm wrong. I mean Amazon just had that rip-your-face-off rally. Last week holy cow, Amazon came to life. I'm a pro. I'm not going to be 100% cash because even though I still see a 20% bear market.
I'm, going to go back out to my original thought, what I said. What was that three weeks ago, four weeks ago year to two years? Because I needed to see details, right? Listening to Colin Powell. Colin Powell said, never get so close to your position that when you're presented with new intel, you can't change your position.
My position is based on hearing Nancy "five scotch" Pelosi going. We're, going to try and get it through the house by Jul 4th or maybe the end of July. I love the July 4th date because she's going to do the whole this is the America, something, something act, which will be a lie. I also like the weekend of July 4th because hopefully all of you are going to be here in South Florida because on July 2nd, when Maverick comes out, we rented the Imax down in Fort Lauderdale.
It's like 100 people. Everybody's going to be wearing flight suits. We're, going to have a big event for the foundation, so make sure you do that. All right, enough rambling on that. So Nancy is talking about April, May, June, July.
That's four months. Ain't gonna happen: August-ish through the house over to the senate? So we have at least six months to a year of this crap, okay. But remember folks, if they go, hey man, we just approved this thing and it's retroactive!
Somebody explained to me how the stock market's gonna go up because some people, I think Werner, was like the increase in productivity or the economy will offset tax increases. Selling that did not work. Mention the impact of higher corporate taxes. And, by the way, Janet Yellen screwed this up the other day. She's like everybody else about when Donald Trump did what he did and cut taxes and the economy exploded. Lowest African-American, Hispanic, you name the metric.
Remember or January of 2020? Those were the good old days before the pandemic. Everything was hitting on all cylinders. He beat China into the ground with the trade war, bringing a shitload of money and unemployment at record lows. You know everything was in the market was at record highs for that time. Everything was going great. What did the rest of the world do? Every country lowered their corporate rate tax rates to follow America.
You know what Janet said? I dug this out today, reading with my sharpie and she said: well, we think that the world's, going to follow our lead, as we kind of turn around and raise taxes. That every other country's like hey, that was a good idea.
We were actually starting to hit on all cylinders. Why would we do this? As a matter of fact, if you're a smart leader, what do you do? You keep your damn taxes low. And, what happens? Warren Buffett being the limousine liberal that he is outs America to other countries. That's going to happen as well, I guarantee it.
What happened to Apple folks with Donald Trump? What happened under Barack Hussein Obama, Apple, kept like a billion dollars in County Cork, Ireland overseas? What happened under Trump? They were allowed to repatriate a ton of that cash.
Thank God. They bought back a lot of shares. What's going to happen under this dude. Capital flight, guys? This is not bullish. The market can keep going up, but as far as the economy goes and I showed you the chart last week and I showed you the Kramer picture that I finally found. I remember sitting there watching and I took that picture. Best week in the stock market since 1938, six million Americans out of work.
This is not good for the economy. Paul Krugman's, an idiot. He literally is a village idiot. If it is good for the economy, it will be the first time in the history of this nation that we've seen this massive type of spending good for the economy.
We already talked about under Obama. If it wasn't Obamacare infrastructure building, it was Frank and Dodd destroying wall street or it was the EPA -. you can't do anything because the yellow-bellied sapsucker lives here.
That's the other thing. I saw a good discussion yesterday on how people like all this infrastructure. The Democrats actually created all the stuff that's going to keep it from happening. You can't construct a new bridge. Here we have the yellow belly sap sucker, who lives right here. So we're going to court for the next five years to fight you on this. Get ready for all this crap. Again, all the infrastructure building, a bridge you build one bridge.
Building a bridge ain't happening overnight. What is happening overnight? Your taxes are going up and company taxes are going up. Okay, so I'm probably not gonna do the hundred. I am gonna go 50 50 baby. I am going to go at least 50 cash. Why? Because we're playing musical chairs. When, not if, the market wakes up to this show of Bidenomics, we will see that we're due guys.
This is it. Markets are cyclical and it's looking for an excuse. So, I'm gonna say, this will be a "hold your nose rally" for me or trade. I'm gonna be Johnny on the spot. I'll show you my real accounts live, and I'll show you that I'm sitting on half cash man. Because I want to be able to stay in the good names. You guys have seen me in the good names. Look at Microsoft.
Microsoft has been nice. Slow and steady wins the race. It ain't going to zero, even in a 20% pullback. I want to be able to take that 50 percent of cash and add to a good name. Being 50 in and 50 in cash allows me like we did that January, the famous January when we pounded the market into the dirt, actually turned some folks here into millionaires. You got to keep some powder dry. Please have some powder.
Try to be very, very careful. I'm telling you, I know for a fact, based on my Mastermind group, dudes I know, ladies I know around the world, family offices, people are starting to slowly backing out of investments. You do not see Axe Capital, Stevie Connor, Ken Giffin have a news conference saying that we're getting out of everything. They don't do that, guys. Nobody does that!
Listen! The Hwang dude that almost blew up the market last week, the biggest hedge fund, explosion/implosion since Long Term Capital management. That was a bad one. That's the systemic risk. Let me wrap up here because i want to finish my coffee. Let me wrap up by saying this because I think Christine or somebody else in the thread said this and it was brilliant.
I didn't even once talk about what's outside of America. You think Israel is going to let Iran get a nuclear weapon? I saw in the paper next week, people are meeting about the nuke deal. Israel ain't. Israel doesn't care. What Europe does. Europe is in bed with Iran. They sell to them and they get Iran's oil. I know for a fact they do and our administration looks the other way. Israel doesn't give a %%//! about Europe. Israel cares about Israel. They will go to war with Iran to prevent them getting a nuke. They've told us this. Israel will attack Iran. Iran has told everybody this. We get a nuke, we're, going to wipe Israel off the face of the map. That's a direct quote, man.
China doesn't even have to fire a shot. They're destroying our military. We're destroying our military from the inside based on recent DOD directives. I'm an extremist. Do you think the government's out of control and overstepped its constitutional bounds, yeah? Do you think that our country or our leadership, can't protect us from foreign threats? Yeah, you're, an extremist. Isn't that great they just heard we lost.
I was in a Facebook group, old fighter pilots like 9 000, fighter POW's, Medal of Honor recipients. They threw us off Facebook. You go against community standards. We are the community, nine thousand fighter pilots. Now I don't even know how to log on to that thing. Old fighter pilots, nine thousand of them, combat MIG killers, even POW's thrown off of Facebook.
We're extremists. So China isn't even going to fire a shot as they take over this country and they will invade Taiwan. They're already more or less kind of doing it. Last week - 2,030 fighter attack aircraft bombers and spy planes. What's Joe gonna? Do what? I'm. Sorry. What's Kamala going to do when China invades Taiwan? Do her cackle and laugh at North Korea? North Korea ballistic missiles. Remember years ago with Donald Trump.
Joe's going to get us killed. He's, going to get us into a nuclear war with North Korea. The dude met the guy twice and actually walked into North Korea. If you're the leader of if you're Xi Jinping some young guy or the ayatollah, and you watch anything that Joe Biden does. Did you see the other day when he was walking up the stairs to Air Force One? They were going crazy that he made it to the top of the stairs. We're clapping that our president makes it to the top of the stairs without falling.
I wonder how the dude hid in his basement for months and still won the presidency. All right, so that's me. I think I'm gonna go 50 50. 50 good names, 50 cash ready to pull the trigger not only to watch the good names implode and get some more of that at a discount, but have some powder dry to pound it into the dirt man, double verticals, bearish, double verticals buying puts whatever it is.
If we get that 20% bear market in the next year to two - I'm back out to a year to two, had to back it out. When I see Nancy, like maybe by the summer, we'll have a bill. Oh man, why? Because all the sucklings got to run they all got to get on Nancy's teeth! Oh, damn man, that's a bad visual.
Sorry about that. All right I got to go, Happy Good Friday. Have a great weekend! Happy Easter! God bless you all and I'll talk to you Monday. We'll see.