Good morning and welcome to Top Gun Options Solo Amazon. Spent the weekend watching some football. I had sworn off the NFL after the whole kneeling thing and that was the year my team, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. So I am tentatively back watching. Part of this is because the NFL seems have re-evaluated the whole kneeling thing and they are not showing it on TV.
After swearing off football I got my Saturdays, Sundays, Monday nights and Thursday nights back. I still have them back because I am just watching the Eagles!
Absolutely blown away by the lifetime offer. Did not expect this at all. 32 of you listened. It is going to be awful. We are going to do great but it will be awful for everyone else. You know that when the billionaires start caring about the market something is wrong.
For those who want to sign up for lifetime and pay later this is not a call option. Need to pay by the end of the day tomorrow. OK'd a couple of folks who had to move money around. But the cutoff is at the end of the day.
And, we have a bunch of new hunters. As of Saturday we have 32 new lifetime members. 38 new members including 6 new hunters. Need to download the group app on your phone.
When everyone is paid and in we will have more than 200 in the lifetime group. To get access go to hunters sdis to get access. On a daily access we typically have 50 active traders.
Look at these upticks. Sell the rip, do not buy the dip. None of these is a bear market rally. You can sell the dips if you want to day trade and absolutely stay on top of the market so you can get out with a profit.
What do I say. When you see the market go up at the open buy puts for the day and get out as soon as the market implodes.
Or you can buy calls at the open and get out as soon as the price pops up and before it goes down. Then go to yoga. This is not investing.Zero skill involved. Love things that involve zero skill and making money.
Next year, crypto is dead, a joke. I think I will go Jamie Diamond on it.
NFT is dead. Rather have my teeth drilled!
I get it that folks make things up to make money. Collateralized debt obligations, here are some really shitting loans. We will but them up and call them awesome loans but they are still shitty. Oh my God they exploded and caused the financial crisis. Who would have thought that?
What did I say all along? Crypto is a Ponzi scheme. Go with the technology.
Armageddon news. Kiev is getting pummeled by kamikazi drone stike. The country that has been
under sanctions forever is exporting killer drones to Russia. Where did they get the money to build them? How about money from Obama. Makes such great sense giving money to folks who want to kill us, who have been killing our soldiers.
Darrel has it right. Made my money in crypto and got out. Now I am here. He has it right. That is the best part of a Ponzi scheme, get out when it is still on the way up. Get in first, get out. Although with the Bernie Madoff shit I know some folks in South Florida who had some of it clawed back to give to other victims.
Retired general Ben Hodges says he believes that UKriane will succeed in retaking Crimea by next summer. Says they need to win outright or Russia will simply be back in a year or two to try again.
Putin invaded Georgia, went to war in Syria. Only under Trump did he not invade. Why? Because he knows that Trump is nuts. Same with the guy in North Korea. You have to convince your enemy that you are just as crazy or crazier.
I am going on about this because it has everything to do with trading. Tell me what the market will do when Putin uses chemical, biological, or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. We already talked about it.
The only way Ukraine takes Crimea without a holocaust is if Putin eats a bullet or otherwise leaves the stage and he is not replaced by someone worse. If you think that the soviets do not look at this sort of situation and think of using their tactical nukes you are dead wrong.
The bottom line is that we are in a lot of trouble. Raytheon, Lockheed Martin are printing billions of dollars. Elon Musk asks if they will pay for the internet and gets a lot of flack.
What does this have to do with trading Amazon? Every thing.
Meanwhile the Wall Street Journal writes that the US is not ready to face China on the battlefield. The Ukraine war has shown deficiencies in our readiness. You want to get filthy rich? Buy LEAPs in all of the defense contractors. They are going to testify before congress that we have depleted all of our Javelins, etc. Ca ching!
Going to declare Ukraine as a dependent on my taxes this year.
Finally economists expect a recession and job losses next year. We are not in a recession now because they changed the rules. Though Biden's sophmore year would be bad but the junior year will be worse.
If the current market breaks katy bar the door. We are living in a slow motion train wreck and the only way the market gets better is if the Fed pivots and then inflation continues to rage.
Look at this chart. The moment the Fed pivots stock keep going down for an average of 14 months! We are screwed, folks.
If the Fed does QE again we will have 1970s inflation. With Ukraine it will be worse than this.
Look at the chart and realize that not once on that screen did the President say we are on the verge of Armageddon and not once was China an economic an military super power. Not one time on that screen was Iran on the verge of getting a nuke.
Good financial and everyone is past that. Normally we would be having a rally with the current financials. Bad news for Amazon. Amazon shoppers shrugged off the second prime day sale. This is not good.
When I listen in to soccer mom conversations not a lot of people paying for kung fu stuff this year for Christmas. Amazon's numbers are only being supported by inflation and not sales.
Can there be a Santa Claus rally? Yes. Why? The election.
Like the market Amazon is not going to rally. We are going to repeat the pattern, pop, slam.
For those with Amazon synthetic stock put a post it note over it and ignore it. In a couple of years it will be doing fine.
In the short term I am going to pound it into the dirt with bear call and put spreads.
And if you can make 50% on a debit spread look at closing it.
Let's look at a bear call spread on Amazon. Sell 80 calls buy the 115. Do it now.
Let me reload. 3685 3690 the other would be more aggressive.
80 contracts. all about position sizing. risking 50 to make 22. here is the bear call spread. About here is where I would maybe eject.
OK risking 52 to make 24. Love it. Sending it out. Taking the next leg down. Burn baby burn.
Already doing a stair step down. Very careful here. Put a closing trade on this before leaving the computer.
One more time if you are on the list you need to complete payment before the end of the day tomorrow.
Have a great rest of your day. Happy hunting. Make sure you hedge and God bless. See you all tomorrow.