Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's get airborne with our Solo Amazon brief. Getting ready to head out of town for the next week or so. Want to knock this out before we gear up for Amazon earnings at the end of the month. In my personal account I am long both AMZN and PSIL, a psychedelic stock. And I am long a covered call for HOOD, Robinhood.
Looking ahead the sophmore year of Joe Biden's presidency is going to be an absolute disaster. We will see a bear market this year and a recession. You can bet on it. Let's get going. We call Amazon the Death Star because it is literally taking over everything it touches from Amazon web services to Amazon air to Amazon Prime. Entertainment too. You name it. It is in everything. It is only getting bigger. It is the only stock that you need to own.
I am actually old enough to remember the Death Star in the first Star Wars movie in the late 70's or early 80's. Got built, blown up rebuilt, maybe blown up again in a later movie.
If you don't know about Top Gun Options I am a former Navy fighter pilot so this is going to have an aviation theme to it. Which fighter aircraft would you rather fly. I am going to give you two choices. This first picture is the F-2 Phantom. I have no idea how they could fly this thing. There were more than 300 switches and dials in that cockpit. The pilot of this aircraft would spend a lot of time "heads down" looking at all of the dials and switches. That is time not spent looking with eyeballs out out of the cockpit looking for potential threats. This was such a complicated aircraft that they put another dude in behind the pilot just to run the radar!
And, you have this one, the joint strike fighter with screens like two iPads side by side. This is the "wonder woman" jet, invisible to radar. This is like the HAL 2000. It does not show a lot of stuff to the pilot because the aircraft knows that the pilot does not need to see most of the available info at the moment. Want to know something else. The plane is learning. I records what the pilot does and learns. I and my sons will be the last fighter pilots on the planet as this is the way of the future. Take a look at that helmet of the Joint Strike Fighter pilot. Looks like Darth Vader.
Clearly combat and training are pretty similar. Somebody is going to win and somebody is getting your ass kicked which in the world of combat aircraft means you are not coming home. Your wife is getting a flag to put above the mantel. So, in trading here at Top Gun Options I am going to teach you how to minimize that risk, get airborne and kill.
I promise that by the end of the brief I will tell you how bad things are coming unless you are an options trader and you know how to take advantage of volatility in an imploding market. I guarantee you that in a month or so we will be down 15 to 20%. At the latest it will be by March. Amazon is the only stock that you need to own and it is a good substitute to trade. Right now it is getting cheaper by the day but still a $3,200 stock. It is a lot cheaper to trade options on the stock than to buy it.
If you don't know me my name is Mathew Buckley. My call sign is Whiz which I earned in my 15 years as a Navy fighter pilot with 44 sorties over Iraq. What does this have to do with trading? Everything. When I was a young officer I joined the Navy to serve my country and see the world. The things I learned about fighting such as planning and tactics carried over into learning to trade options. Red teaming, contingency plans, and all the rest can be applied to options trading and make you a successful trader.
I teach this same fighter pilot methodology to my groups and make them successful traders. I did well enough that I was hired as the director of strategy at CBOT. I helped build a hedge fund when I was there. I helped build the retail brokerage called Options House. And, I was the founder and CEO of the Options News Network. We were essentially the CNBC for options, 24-7. Loved Chicago. Lots of friends there but walking from Union Station to the Board of Trade in February is a survival situation. So, I live on the beach in Boca Raton, Florida, God's waiting room.
I wrote a book last year, Covid Crash. I was the only financial professional to call the crash to the day and the recovery to the day as well. We were in an accelerated retirement brief. Trump was in Davos. Somebody asked him about Covid and he said it was nothing. A number of US Senators (who were busy selling their stock) said it was nothing. When Trump told the reporter that the question about the sickness in China was a wasted question I looked into the camera and said, "get out of the market."
Puts on the S&P 500, get long volatility, the market is going to explode. We printed money. 2020 was my best year ever as an options trader. We literally made millionaires here at Top Gun Options. It was an incredible year. We started two investment clubs based on that. People were asking how did you do it and we showed them. I also do a podcast called the Max Afterburner group. In just three months we are in the top 3% in the world. I had to look that up.
With a million or more downloads we are near the top of the list. I work with local law enforcement on a project called No Fallen Heros, MADD because I lost a sister to a drunk driver, and last year I started the Top Gun Fighter Foundation to help prevent veteran suicide. In the hour that I will be talking to you a veteran will kill itself. I could not be more honored and pleased to be doing this. OK, here we go.
This might shock some of you.
They lied to you, folks. The first day you bought a stock, put money in a mutual fund or whatever, they lied to you. Wall Street lies. I hated being on Wall Street. I came from a place where you did not get into a fighter squadron, earn your gold wings unless you were trustworthy. There was a weeding out process where if you were a shit bag you were gone. In Wall Street or Chicago, if you are a shit bag you make it to the top. Trust me. These people would shove their own mother in front of a train to make a dollar.
How many times have you been told don't put all of your eggs in one basket. Diversify! That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Who says that? Brokers say that. How to brokers make money? They make money every time you buy or sell stocks. When you hear the word broker think commissions. They want you into as many positions as possible. In the old days it was called churning an account. How many of you have seen the movie Wolf of Wall Street. OK boys, pick up the phone. Get them into this stock. Well, we got them into this stock yesterday. Well, then. Get them out of this stock and into that stock.
When I build options house we tracked how much people traded.
Although no one has yet asked the question I am going to answer it. Isn't it good that I trade at Robinhood? Do you know the old poker saying. If you don't know who the rube is at the table it is you! If you are not paying for something you are not the customer. You are the product. Do you know who Ken Griffin is? Do you know how much they pay for order flow?
Don't give me this "I don't pay anything." Because, you are paying by getting worse order filling and making less or paying more every time they process one of your orders.
So, diversification is for stupid people. Warren Buffett said that diversification is protection against ignorance and makes little sense for people who know what they are doing. The only stock you need to own is Amazon. Amazon by itself is diversified. It is in everything.
If 20 years ago you had taken away the name Amazon and showed me their growth from then to today I would not think that could have been humanly possible. Amazon's revenue has grown at 30% a year! AWS, Amazon Web Services did not exist a fe years ago and see how its is growing now. It is a Microsoft lookalike! Amazon Prime day is like a national holiday. People have it on their calendars.
If I had looked at Amazon's price, free cash flow and small profit I would have shorted the company and I would have been an idiot because its stock has grown phenominally. Jeff Bezos is brilliant. He had said he does not want to make a dollar. He wants to take every dollar that comes in and do something with it. So, he has build his company, created new businesses within his company.
He has also said he is never going to split the stock which is why it is a $3,000 stock. Don't just listen to me. Here are three of our members who have made thousands, tens of thousands, and a hundred thousand a month trading Amazon. I am going to show you my personal account. In three days I made $90,000 on short calls on Amazon. And this week I made $16,835. I did that on only $45,000 in trading capital! That is a 37% return this week. If you anualize that it comes to more than $800,000 on just $45,000 of trading capital!
My mission objective in Solo Amazon is to make $15,000 a weekon average. OK? My worst week last year was flat and my best was $55,000. There were no down weeks.
What are the risks of trading just one stock? Does anyone remember Lehman Brothers. A 150-year-old company gone in a week at the start of the Financial Crisis. Jim Cramer remembers Bear Sterns telling his audience that it was a steal at $75 and two days later it was gone! How about Pets.com, Enron? So, what is the common thread that connects all of these? They did not own a thing! They only had paper and when investors sold to get out the stocks went to zero and they were gone.
Can Amazon go to zero? Yes and no. Amazon owns things like its fulfillment centers and airplanes. The company does have political risk but even when Trump went after them the stock went up! Trump goes after them and the stock goes up.
The most powerful man on the face of the planet trys to destroy a company and nothing happened! So, why am I briefing this. Because there are political risks.
Antitrust. I remember with Exxon, Microsoft, and others. Jeff Bezos can afford a couple of lawyers. It could take 5, 10, 15 years for the government to make a decision and it could still go Amazon's way. I am not worried about it in the next few years!
When it comes to trading Amazon I wear two suits at Top Gun Options. I wear my flight suit. I am going to tell you what I feel as an American. I think Jeff Bezos is a scum bag. He treats his employees badly, does not pay them enough. At the height of the pandemic they were not even wearing personal protection.
Then I am going to open my closet and put on my $10,000 Armani and say that I don't care. You want a friend. Get a dog. I am going to go Gordon Gekko on this! I love Amazon. Every employee who wants to unionize. He should fire them! Not enough truck drivers? Who cares. A couple of years ago Amazon invested billions in Rivion. In a few years there will be 18 wheelers out there without drivers.
They don't eat, go to the bathroom, sleep, or ask for labor rights. That's evil. Eh! Like I said, you want a friend, get a dog.
When I talk like this I am showing you how to invest and potentially make money. Know that I don't like it sometimes. In some of the briefs I will take a flamethrower to Amazon and then, who cares. They make money! What do I do with a lot of the money that I make. I throw it over to my foundation to help save veterans' lives. So, those were the risks. Now let's talke about the benefits.
When trading options you can make money if the price goes up, down, or sideways. When you buy stock you also have three ways, buy, hope, and pray. That is not how it is as an options trader. I make money when the stock goes up, down, or sideways. When you trade just Amazon you stay focuses on the news that just impacts Amazon. You become an expert at trading Amazon. And, you reduce your time spent on other positions.
Now I am going to throw one of our members under the bus. Doc joined to get help trading. We talked. Had coffee. He opened his computer and showed me his accounts and I passed out. Then I woke up. He had 33 positions. This is a busy doctor without enough time! Let that sink in. I do this for a living and I have three positions and that is a lot.
He briefed me on them. He said, I think this one is a pot stock. Did you just say that you think? Folks. Do me a favor. Even if you do not become a member, look at your portfolio. We had in Chicago twenty some experts analyzing a couple of companies. You would be surprised to know how often they got things wrong.
So, Mr. Retail Trader, you have five, ten or more stocks and I have maybe three and I do this for a living. Why would you not simplify, folks? If you want to have 33 positions you will in just Amazon. Right now if the FTC broke up Amazon you would end up with about 12 monopolies. It is worth more broken up, folks.
It's like GE. GE was this behemoth and its parts are worth more than the whole! Because Amazon is not broken up you can simplify your trading by just owning and trading one stock. I have a friend who is a market maker just for Apple. Cares about nothing else. Does great.
An alternative to trading just Amazon is to trade the XLY ETF which is a fourth Amazon! A good friend of mine always says that shrimp are simply a vehicle for eating cocktail sauce. Well, XLY is a vehicle for "eating" Amazon. There is your diversification on this screen. Amazon, Tesla, Home Depot, Starbucks…
So, how do I target Amazon for max profit? Every Monday establish base positions, synthetic stoc with protective puts and long diagonals with protective puts.
In the Options world we can fly out two years to establish these positions.
Then we trade the front month, this month. Amazon is going up we buy some bullish spreads, long calls. If it is going donw we buy bearish spreads and buy puts.
If it is going sideways we buy an iron condor.
If you are sitting there saying that you have no idea what an option is in a couple of weeks we are having full throttle training again. So, your timing will be perfect.
Now let me show you my brokerage account. This morning I bought some new Amazon calls at the low. It is up and I sold some for a profit and if it works out by the close I will have another $1,800 on my $16,000 trade.
Here is the screen. Here are all of my Amazon order for the week. Here is current. I bought five 3250 calls out to next Friday.
I think we are due for a snapback rally. We are way too oversold from the tech wreck.
Amazon does an arc every week. Up on Monday and Tuesday, Peak on Wednesday. Down on Thursday and Friday. Earning are in about three weeks. If we do not get a run up in earnings it is look out below. Then it will be below $3000, easily. This here is why I like Amazon righ tnow. Implosion, explosion, Implosion, explosion, Implosion, explosion, Implosion, explosion, and so forth. This is a trading dream!
It is not an investing dream right now. Looking at a five year chart you can see that Amazon does a rip your face off rally and hovers and repeats. You want to know why. When they make money they use it to prepare for the next phase of business.
One year chart. For the last year in Amazon this has been a trader's dream.
These types of moves are what allow me some weeks to do $50,000 or $18,000. Here you can see all of my Amazon trades. All day long I sit here and take shots of opportunity with Amazon.
Jamie Diamond, the skipper of JPMorgan came out and said he expects there to be six or seven rate increases this year.
The Sophmore year of Joe Biden's presidency is going to be an absolue disaster. Does anyone think that after his Freshman year it is going to get any better? A recession is coming. They need to act decisively like Paul Volcker did in 1982 but I don't think they have the leadership to act decisively. They will act incrementally. Unfortunately they need to do it more aggressively to be successful.
You have to shock the market. They should do a 50 basic point increase right now and then tell everyone that more is coming. Folks, you have to make a decision about what is coming this year. It does not make any difference to me what happens because I am going to print money either way.
Inflation is going to go raging or Jerome Powell is going to push the fire extinquisher and smother. The last time Powell said we should raise interest rates we had the Christmas massacer!
We went down 22 in the S&P 500 over three months!
Remember that February is usually a shit show. We did not get the usual Santa Clause rally this year. We usually hover after Q4 earnings in mid January and then in February we slam. In March Powell will act. He will telegraph any big rate increase.
Meanwhile do not fly solo in this market. I believe that what is coming this year will be exactly like the covid crash. And, you will have the opportunity to print money on the way down and on the way up again just like before!
OK guys, Solo Amazon. It is only $897 a year. And, if you want to grab an annual membership to to topgunoptions.com/soloannual. There is a 25% discount today.
If you cannot attend live (80% of our members work) we send out text and email alerts.
The email alerts contain the trade, the risk, the probability, and a trade ticket. At the end of the brief I post the current status of all trades for which alerts were sent.
And, here are the proprietary manuals discounted to $97 from the regular $197 price. I go back and reread these sometimes.
Here is what you get.
The brief on Monday AM Eastern time, email alerts, three skill-based manuals, and access to the members-only ready room. That is our online forum where you can ask questions read the chats from other members.
And, you can sign up for the monthly and then upgrade. Here are both links.
topgunoptions.com/solo-amazon-monthly is for $97 a month.
Almost forgot. In about 8 weeks we are going to do 8 live training sessions to teach how to trade options. That's called Full Throttle and it is $195. Here are the sessions. You will have your manuals and learn more and more with each trading session.
What you should have learned today is that you need to simplify your trading. Amazon and XLY are really all that you need.
Learn how to trade with my course. Trade in simulation only until you understand what you are doing and are routinely making paper profits before risking your own money.
You are in charge of your trades. I show you what I am doing and explain why and you can follow my example of not.
Lots of folks did during the Covid Crash and we made millionaires.
The bottom line for today is that a crash is coming in Biden's sophmore year and you can profit by learning how to trade options and not flying solo.
Sign up for Solo Amazon with Top Gun Options.
Have a great rest of your day. Happy hunting. Make sure you hedge. God bless.